According to The Kobeissi Letter, within one hour of oil markets opening after the US bombed Iran, the initial surge in oil prices was almost entirely erased, with prices now up just 0.5% (source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, June 22, 2025). This rapid normalization signals that broader financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, are not pricing in significant risk escalation. Crypto traders should note that the muted oil response may reduce near-term volatility spillover to BTC and ETH, suggesting market participants expect limited disruption to global risk sentiment.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, in the last 72 hours the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites, Russia indicated countries are prepared to supply nuclear weapons to Iran, and Iran’s parliament voted to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these significant geopolitical escalations, stock market futures opened down only 0.5% (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, June 22, 2025). This muted reaction signals strong risk tolerance or hedging among investors, which could translate to increased volatility and safe-haven inflows in the cryptocurrency market, especially for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as traders seek alternatives during geopolitical crises.